Anyway, now you know why I have been silent for a few days. The thing on my mind fora  good while now has been the AppStore craze. I think it is fabulous that Apple has sold 1 billion apps. But I think it’s madness for each and every one to give up their day-job in order to become an iPhone App developer (or any other platform with a newly opened appstore for that matter). Apple has been quick to use a few lucky ones as showcases of one-man shows that have had success. It is great and they really deserve it. What I am saying is that they are not the majority.

The underlying problem is still there and the appstores are just a new pain killer, possibly doing the job better than other things before them. The problem is the fragmentation in platforms. The lowest common denominator in mobile today is SMS. But it has its limitations in creating exciting experiences other than flirt SMS from that gorgeous girl on campus or delivering sports scores live.

After that we have browser based services, or mobile internet services formerly known as WAP services. It’s getting messy, but it is still manageable.

When we come to apps the fragmentations really sets in. And the entry cost to the game starts to be prohibitive. Some developers I talk to claim that they see costs as high as 50 000 USD to launch one new game app on a major US carrier. This is of course driven by demands to cover every handset ever sold by the carrier (well, almost).

The costs are dropping with the AppStores. Seems like Ovi store is the cheapest entry ticket at the moment, but it is also the most recent player with an unproven distribution power, and they are currently cutting down on resources in this area, even though they claim Ovi is becoming the platform for all their new service business to consumers. Read more about that in this Washington Post article.

So if you’re going the appstore route, think twice an make sure you do your homework. We are after all in a business with low value purchases and thin margins, so volume will always be key. And the appstores are getting crowded fast. You need to have a pretty strong marketing budget bhind you to get your app in front of real prospective buyers.

Good luck and see you next week!

Fragmentation is a major hurdle in this case. Young small (and often quite weak financially) developers try to conquer a world that is dysfunctional. The paradox is quite simple: On one hand you can create a much nicer end-user experience with an application. But on the other hand the distribution of the same application is close to impossible in many cases.

In the case of java applications you need to port to all sorts of devices and all the handset specific quirks. Already there even a tough use of the 80/20 rule can cost you more than the application will ever make. Then you need to get placement on handsets and portals for your app. That will cost you even more.

The harsh sounding conclusion made by Mr. Mace and his fellows is that you have to go with the solution that has the best working distribution and business model. Not the best product/offer to the end user. It is a fairly sad fact, but a reality if you have the notion of living off your hard development work.

This is a rule I have lived by for quite some years with the odd exception. The main thing is that it works most times. In my recent venture, Acemob, we have been cash flow positive from day one in our 1 year long life.

There are niches where you will have enough buyers or motivation from other parties to make a java application work. We see this in the gaming segment, even though many companies in that segment struggle as well.

Well, to finish off on the bright side (it is the end of the week after all and I would hate to ruin your weekend) – WAP/xhtml works these days! The mobile internet experience is not bad at all and flat rates are being offered by most mobile operators. So with the mind sharpened by the restrictions inherent in developing browsing services for mobile phones, there are plenty of opportunities out there. Go get them!