Anyway, now you know why I have been silent for a few days. The thing on my mind fora  good while now has been the AppStore craze. I think it is fabulous that Apple has sold 1 billion apps. But I think it’s madness for each and every one to give up their day-job in order to become an iPhone App developer (or any other platform with a newly opened appstore for that matter). Apple has been quick to use a few lucky ones as showcases of one-man shows that have had success. It is great and they really deserve it. What I am saying is that they are not the majority.

The underlying problem is still there and the appstores are just a new pain killer, possibly doing the job better than other things before them. The problem is the fragmentation in platforms. The lowest common denominator in mobile today is SMS. But it has its limitations in creating exciting experiences other than flirt SMS from that gorgeous girl on campus or delivering sports scores live.

After that we have browser based services, or mobile internet services formerly known as WAP services. It’s getting messy, but it is still manageable.

When we come to apps the fragmentations really sets in. And the entry cost to the game starts to be prohibitive. Some developers I talk to claim that they see costs as high as 50 000 USD to launch one new game app on a major US carrier. This is of course driven by demands to cover every handset ever sold by the carrier (well, almost).

The costs are dropping with the AppStores. Seems like Ovi store is the cheapest entry ticket at the moment, but it is also the most recent player with an unproven distribution power, and they are currently cutting down on resources in this area, even though they claim Ovi is becoming the platform for all their new service business to consumers. Read more about that in this Washington Post article.

So if you’re going the appstore route, think twice an make sure you do your homework. We are after all in a business with low value purchases and thin margins, so volume will always be key. And the appstores are getting crowded fast. You need to have a pretty strong marketing budget bhind you to get your app in front of real prospective buyers.

Good luck and see you next week!

• 62% do not yet view their mobile device as an extension of their computer.
• Only 23% feel that they have more or the same level of control over their mobile device as they have over their computer.
• 70% have never downloaded an application to their mobile device.
• 67% want to be able to choose their mobile applications for themselves, rather than have their carriers choose for them.

So basically the consumer says: I know what I want, let me choose and make it much easier to use and earn the trust for me to spend time and money with you/your service.

Trust is a big thing here. The carriers have been shocking numerous consumers with data charges, content providers off-deck have been ripping off customers with unstoppable subscriptions schemes etc. This is changing to the better though. We are getting transparency in pricing and the scamsters are being reigned in. 

The play book going forward must be to offer choice, easy access and most of all “it”, the x-factor for the specific target groups. What can this service/product do for me?, is the question the consumer wants answers to. Fast. In about 3 seconds on your site/deck/ad they need to get what’s in it for them. There is no recipe for this part. Here the gap in conversion can be huge. My experience is that rapid prototyping and adjust as you is what works best.

Currently I am involved in launching Souldate (site in Swedish), a new mobile dating service with localisation. We are adjusting and tweaking the service daily. We started off with pretty scary conversion numbers. A few workdays later we have improved them substantially. In this case will market the service in multiple channels. TV is about all we are not using. Customer registration is done in any of three channels – SMS, wap and web. This means we have to constantly evaluate to see what we should focus on.

But all this work with constant improvements are lost if the  hygiene factors trust and transparency are not in place. Here we all have to pull together to change, blow whistles and make sure we earn the trust of our customers. Without it we can pack up and go home.

Then you pick up the Economist and find the opposite view. In the article Boom in the Bust a rosier picture is painted. Slightly simplified; the wireless industry is thriving thanks to it changing structure. 

This is a painfully strong reminder that we should not listen blindly to projections from gurs and analysts. Do your own homework, ask your colleagues, partners and competitors and weigh it all up. Then make sure you run a tight ship so you can pay salaries and bills. Can you chip away a bit on the debt side as well maybe? Well this is not a post on how to manage a business in a recession. It is, as always, my five cents on the mobile web and content industry.

To me much of the data and facts at hand support the view that mobile communications has become a must-have commodity in most markets. In many cases mobile content is a low value purchase. Pricing and total cost of use is becoming more and more transparent. This all works to our favour. Consumers are not that inclined to stop using the mobile services they are used to and like.

On the handset side it is different of course. This is the higher cost item. Prior years race to upgrade phones technically and market it hard to get consumers to upgrade, has made the installed base of handsets pretty high end overall. You do not really need the newest phone to be able to get the most of your mobile life. What you have in your pocket today will do just fine in most cases. Here the handset manufacturer’s success has become their own enemy.

Upgrading your phone today is seen as a pure luxury purchase. Staying in touch, participating in communities, tweeting away as usual, is part of what many consumers are today – a “homo mobilis”. That behaviour will take longer to change. 

Ending note to self: Keep offering great services and invent the next services to delight existing and new users.

Outcome: “No we can’t do this since the service has too few users”.

Well, that was sort of what we tried to change by running this campaign….However much we want to think that the mobile internet is the best thing since sliced bread, it isn’t. Not in the mind of the consumers. We have a long way to go and should maybe cooperate a bit more?

I hope that we will be able to run this campaign eventually. But you see the irrational forces in play and then you are not surprised that the mobile Internet has yet to see its big boom days. And we will be there for that! Keep up the good work all colleagues out there!

Fragmentation is a major hurdle in this case. Young small (and often quite weak financially) developers try to conquer a world that is dysfunctional. The paradox is quite simple: On one hand you can create a much nicer end-user experience with an application. But on the other hand the distribution of the same application is close to impossible in many cases.

In the case of java applications you need to port to all sorts of devices and all the handset specific quirks. Already there even a tough use of the 80/20 rule can cost you more than the application will ever make. Then you need to get placement on handsets and portals for your app. That will cost you even more.

The harsh sounding conclusion made by Mr. Mace and his fellows is that you have to go with the solution that has the best working distribution and business model. Not the best product/offer to the end user. It is a fairly sad fact, but a reality if you have the notion of living off your hard development work.

This is a rule I have lived by for quite some years with the odd exception. The main thing is that it works most times. In my recent venture, Acemob, we have been cash flow positive from day one in our 1 year long life.

There are niches where you will have enough buyers or motivation from other parties to make a java application work. We see this in the gaming segment, even though many companies in that segment struggle as well.

Well, to finish off on the bright side (it is the end of the week after all and I would hate to ruin your weekend) – WAP/xhtml works these days! The mobile internet experience is not bad at all and flat rates are being offered by most mobile operators. So with the mind sharpened by the restrictions inherent in developing browsing services for mobile phones, there are plenty of opportunities out there. Go get them!