I like all honest trial-and-error efforts. I rather trust someone searching the next big thing rather than the person who says he already has. This is all about testing and listening. Test. Listen. Test. Listen What do the users think of it? What works? Are the users we care about saying this? The latter is the hard part of course. Anyway, I really hope Telia is on to something to spread mobile social networking to the masses.

Short and sweet this post. But hey, its Friday. Enjoy the weekend! I am heading out to Las Vegas and CTIA next week. Drop me a line if you want to catch up.

It is clear that the established communities have the upper hand over the Nokias of this world in terms of being able to attracting users. Participating in a community and tribe is a social activity. Even though Nokia has the excellent tagline “Connecting people”, it is not the brand people think of when they think social network. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. One of the tags I will track in the news flood next week from MWC in Barcelona.

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Isn’t the market much bigger among the users in the “Mobile-Only-Internet-Generation” (Do we have room for yet another acronym? – MOIG). The big dragons Facebook & Co. will/are of course taking a large chunk of the mobile user pie. We start to see some really neat interfaces to the big web players’ communities. And I am not even including  the iPhone interfaces here since they still have to be considered fairly marginal still. But not for long.

Back to the segments that access the Internet only from their mobile (did MOIG work for you?). The drivers for this behaviour are multiple. I guess one driver is directly related to computer penetration in a market. This would explain mobile internet access in South Africa and India to a large extent.

Then we have the more fundamental lack of patience and need for immediacy that is prevalent in many user segments today. A computer is just too slow to boot and you do not have it with you at all times. The mobile is there at almost every moment of inspiration.

A third driver is the privacy coupled with the possibility to be anonymous. Yes you can fake your nickname from a PC as well. However, the small screen and proximity to your face makes the phone the most private media channel we have. I would claim that this enhances the feeling of being anonymous. Even though the opposite is often true since the traceability is much better with an MSISDN than an IP-address at an ISP somewhere.

I should stop exploring the human mind and behaviour now since I am not an expert in this field. I am a human though and frequent interaction with users of various mobile social networks, chat and dating services provides some solid ground for me to stand on here.

On top of this two commercial constraints have disappeared to a large extent: Flat rate mobile data is here to stay (and get cheaper!) and advertising funding allows for distribution and monetization freed of the strong grip of the mobile operators.

My key points then?

1. A closed mobile social network is a dead duck from the word go for obvious reasons.

2. The big web players Facebook & Co. will become big IF they let themselves go of the computer experience and focus on the strenghts of the mobile phone interface and how it can enhance the overall experience of their service.

3. Mobile only players are/will be a big group in the future. We already now see players like itsmy.com, Lifestylers (I am involved here) and others having large user bases.

If you want to discuss this in person and have the opportunity let’s hook up at Wireless Developer Forum in Cambridge 10 March where I am speaking on this subject. The producers have been kind enough to offer  me 100 pounds off the entrance fee to anyone using this link.

Have a nice weekend!