If we look at the facts the message is clear. A UK study shows the following. In December 2007 57% of unique mobile internet users came from a carrier deck. 12 monts later in December 2008 the same number is 22%. I do not have numbers for 2009, but when I ask around today among carriers and others the reply is in the 10-20% range. So we have clear evidence that we are repeating the web journey from 1995 and onwards. Carriers still a very necessary part of the ecosystem, but now it is a game of online marketing that starts in the mobile. It will be a cut-throat game not for the faint hearted.

The shift now is away from technology lead to marketing lead in order to succeed. The biggest impact of these two is the responsibility and burden of marketing now falling heavily on the content provider. New skill sets and fresh cash to invest in marketing is needed. Many content providers are more geared as product development and product marketing outfits, not D2C powerhouses. This happens at a time then mobile advertising has pretty poor ROi in many channels and other marketing is expensive. CPO deals are not that common at the moment. In the near term it will put a strain on cash flow.

However this is a transition period. It will stabilise and long-term models and pricing in line with performance will prevail. In 24 months’ time we will see media driven models and conditions rule the mobile internet market.
The road to profitability hinges on mastering the challenge with small revenue streams and historical issues with consumer trust.

Revenue: Multi-line models required: Advertising, sponsorships, virtual goods, auction based ad systems etc. Paying for enhanced experience and more convenience for user.

Trust: Scams with everlasting subscriptions for ringtones etc still in peoples mind. Transparency and honest offers will be key for long term survival.

In 5 years we will have a new range of digital media houses/publishers and some of the old media houses will have made it through their cathartic journey from old media to new media. Wanna join the ride? It will be fun!

The claim is that they have sold pizzas for 1 million USD in that app. That is pretty neat facts. The mobile as a retail outlet for core business that has nothing to do with mobile or social media. This should hopefully wet the appetite for others to follow. Hopefully in more channels than the app store. There are more phones out there.

This week has been pretty mind-blowing to be honest. Two pretty major announcements made from two behemoths in the industry. First out was Vodafone “outing” itself as a smart pipe nothing more and nothing less. Let’s hope the walk matches the talk. Your humble blogger has been a proponent of this for a long time as you know. More about it here and here. 

Then we had Nokia announcing that they would halt development of Ovi Share, align their efforts to work more in sync with third parties like Twitter, Flickr and Facebook. Good thinking and way to go to leverage the position as the leading mobiel phone company.

I think we have just witnessed some very positive things the whole economic crisis has brought. This will help growth in the mobile apps/content business. Hopefully this will trigger more outings and realignments for the better.

What is the next move by the big players that would have the biggest positive impact on our industry?

It is not an app store. Remember Vodafone gives access to bill their customers worldwide. This cover all types of handsets in several markets. Build once and deploy everywhere gets one step closer to reality.

However discoverability still will be a challenge. Rightly so the main responsibility for the marketing will fall on the content provider. If the billing payouts from the operator is more in line with the 5% a credit card transaction costs it is a fair deal. I am still waiting for details on this.

So far we have seen the mobile operators abusing their monopoly to bill to a mobile phone. The quantum leap needed here is that we get the billing cost down to single digit percentage poit of the retail price. That would be the catalyst the mobile content and value added services business needs.

Alot of questions. Important ones though. Help me out here and share what you know. I will share everything I find out.