The glove has been thrown. Or rather some one has spoken up. In Michael Mace’s very well written post about the death of mobile applications, we also learn much about the mobile content value chain in general.

Fragmentation is a major hurdle in this case. Young small (and often quite weak financially) developers try to conquer a world that is dysfunctional. The paradox is quite simple: On one hand you can create a much nicer end-user experience with an application. But on the other hand the distribution of the same application is close to impossible in many cases.

In the case of java applications you need to port to all sorts of devices and all the handset specific quirks. Already there even a tough use of the 80/20 rule can cost you more than the application will ever make. Then you need to get placement on handsets and portals for your app. That will cost you even more.

The harsh sounding conclusion made by Mr. Mace and his fellows is that you have to go with the solution that has the best working distribution and business model. Not the best product/offer to the end user. It is a fairly sad fact, but a reality if you have the notion of living off your hard development work.

This is a rule I have lived by for quite some years with the odd exception. The main thing is that it works most times. In my recent venture, Acemob, we have been cash flow positive from day one in our 1 year long life.

There are niches where you will have enough buyers or motivation from other parties to make a java application work. We see this in the gaming segment, even though many companies in that segment struggle as well.

Well, to finish off on the bright side (it is the end of the week after all and I would hate to ruin your weekend) – WAP/xhtml works these days! The mobile internet experience is not bad at all and flat rates are being offered by most mobile operators. So with the mind sharpened by the restrictions inherent in developing browsing services for mobile phones, there are plenty of opportunities out there. Go get them!